Keep Calm & Carry On
Dollar Trending Higher, Despite Euro
If one were to judge FX trends by the price action of euro alone, then one would think that FX has been a dull market this year. Yet there have been sharp moves: yen weakness at the start of the year, later EM and commodity currency weakness over the summer, and
more recently a bounce in European currencies. Taking all this together, we interpret this to be the traits of a
major turn in the dollar. Previous turns have never seen all currencies move at the same time. There are numerous leads and lags, but as the years unfold it becomes evident that a clear dollar trend has emerged.
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